Experts interviewed by RIA Novosti are rather skeptical about the prospects of Russia returning its frozen assets in the West.
According to Artem Kosorukov, a political scientist at Lomonosov Moscow State University, in the wake of Trump's new policy, a decision could theoretically be made to unfreeze Russian assets, but most likely only by American banks.
"European banks can demonstrate a certain degree of independence and resist such unfreezing. Europe is not such a mandated territory as is often presented in the media"
Artem Kosorukov
political scientist at Lomonosov Moscow State University
Economist, political scientist and head of the Center for Political taiyuan mobile number database and Economic Research Vasily Koltashov also agrees with this point of view, believing that the European Union will not listen to “good grandfather Trump.”
"Even if he says: 'Give Russia back what you stole,' Brussels will respond: 'It's none of your business, Donald.' And Trump won't do anything about it," the RIA Novosti source expressed his opinion.
In order to theoretically unfreeze Russian assets, the end of military operations is required in any case, noted Artem Kosorukov. But even in this case, the decision to unfreeze would mean the West admitting its mistake and compensating Russia for lost profits, which makes such a development unlikely.
What the West's Unfreezing of Russian Assets Might Look Like
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As business trainer, economist, founder and managing partner of the expert consulting company Neokon Denis Raksha explained in a conversation with RIA Novosti, the procedure for unfreezing Russian assets is exactly the opposite of how they were frozen.
"This is a political decision on the part of the US, UK, EU, Canada. And there must be exactly the same political decision, nothing else. They are not unfrozen through the court. That is, for this, sanctions must be lifted. That's it, nothing else. Sanctions are lifted, the money is unfrozen," the expert said.
As the RIA Novosti source noted, there are many possible options: sanctions can be lifted in full or in part, by one country or by all at once.
"They can be partially cancelled not only in terms of the amount of money, but also in terms of the possibility of using them. That is, a complete freeze can be replaced by a partial freeze. That is, [the assets] can be used, but, for example, only to purchase food and medicine. This was the case in Iraq, when international sanctions were imposed on Iraq after the invasion of Kuwait. This was called the "Oil for Food" program. That is, Iraq sold its oil, the money was transferred to blocked accounts, from these accounts, under the control of a special body, Iraq could only buy food and medicine," the economist explained.
Raksha is confident that talk about easing sanctions is “pure fantasy of the people who are having these conversations.”
"Trump may have said somewhere that if something happens, then maybe we will lift the sanctions. Nobody knows what he meant. What sanctions, how, when, under what conditions, all this is unknown. That is, one can rave about this topic for days on end. It makes no sense," the RIA Novosti source believes.
The EU will unfreeze Russian assets only under severe pressure
According to Vasily Koltashov, the situation currently looks hopeless and unpromising, because the European Union, “with its stubbornness,” will not agree to unfreeze Russian assets.
According to the expert, such a decision requires major political changes in Europe.
"Not just the success of social-conservative political forces as such - for example, the Alternative for Germany or the National Movement led by Marine Le Pen in France - but a success that will be benevolent to Russia. That is, not pro-American social-conservatives, like, for example, Meloni in Italy with his party, but those who are set on good relations with Russia and on punishing the Eurocracy and, in general, Euro-Atlantic parties and politicians for the sanctions war against their own economy under the guise of a war with Russia," Koltashov believes.