Japan’s economy on the brink: best-case and worst-case scenarios
Posted: Tue Jul 01, 2025 9:53 am
The Great East Japan Earthquake has hit us with a more serious "bomb" that Japan has been carrying. We will make a comprehensive prediction of the near future of Japan, which is in a state of extreme turmoil!
"The automobile-related industry suffered the most damage from the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, but the aftershock on April 7 had a major impact on the semiconductor industry. We had made considerable progress in recovering, and just as we were about to restart operations, we were forced to stop again."
So says Tohoku University Graduate School Associate Professor Michi Fukushima, who is an expert on the Tohoku region's regional economy. Associate Professor Fukushima continues, "The damage from the earthquake was small in inland areas, but the impact of planned power outages has thrown production plans into disarray."
The Great East Japan Earthquake was an remove background image unprecedented complex disaster that included earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear accident. The Tohoku economy is based on agriculture, fisheries, electronic parts, and automobile parts, all of which were hit hard by the complex disaster. Even now, more than a month after the earthquake (at the time of magazine publication), large aftershocks, the nuclear power plant problem with no end in sight, and power shortages are weighing heavily on the recovery of the Tohoku economy.
If we rely solely on a "let's do our best" mentality, our progress towards recovery will run out of steam. Let's take a step back and think about where our country is headed. First, what will happen in the coming year? Almost all economists agree that, in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), there will be negative growth until around this summer, after which reconstruction demand will pick up and GDP will turn positive. At the Bank of Japan's branch managers' meeting held on April 11, the economic outlook was revised downward compared to January, particularly for Tohoku and the Kanto-Koshinetsu region.
"The automobile-related industry suffered the most damage from the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, but the aftershock on April 7 had a major impact on the semiconductor industry. We had made considerable progress in recovering, and just as we were about to restart operations, we were forced to stop again."
So says Tohoku University Graduate School Associate Professor Michi Fukushima, who is an expert on the Tohoku region's regional economy. Associate Professor Fukushima continues, "The damage from the earthquake was small in inland areas, but the impact of planned power outages has thrown production plans into disarray."
The Great East Japan Earthquake was an remove background image unprecedented complex disaster that included earthquake, tsunami, and nuclear accident. The Tohoku economy is based on agriculture, fisheries, electronic parts, and automobile parts, all of which were hit hard by the complex disaster. Even now, more than a month after the earthquake (at the time of magazine publication), large aftershocks, the nuclear power plant problem with no end in sight, and power shortages are weighing heavily on the recovery of the Tohoku economy.
If we rely solely on a "let's do our best" mentality, our progress towards recovery will run out of steam. Let's take a step back and think about where our country is headed. First, what will happen in the coming year? Almost all economists agree that, in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), there will be negative growth until around this summer, after which reconstruction demand will pick up and GDP will turn positive. At the Bank of Japan's branch managers' meeting held on April 11, the economic outlook was revised downward compared to January, particularly for Tohoku and the Kanto-Koshinetsu region.