Examples of survivorship bias in practice

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tasmih1234
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Joined: Sat Dec 28, 2024 10:04 am

Examples of survivorship bias in practice

Post by tasmih1234 »

One can think of countless examples of survivorship bias. Here are some that are relevant to entrepreneurs:

Success recipes from bestsellers: Many entrepreneurs read books by successful business people or entrepreneurs who share their secrets and strategies for success. While it can be helpful to learn from these experiences, it is important to realize that the strategies described in the book will not necessarily work. There may be many entrepreneurs who have tried the same methods but have not been successful, but they usually do not write a book and certainly not best sellers. People are good at explaining success after the fact, but rarely will you find a book that predicts success.
Famous college dropouts: Many people hear about successful entrepreneurs who left college, such as Bill Gates or Mark Zuckerberg, and conclude that a formal education is not important for success in business. However, for every successful dropout, there are countless others who didn't make it, you just don't hear about them anymore. It is important to realize that these success stories are exceptions.
Investment funds often show impressive returns from the start date. This conduit cn mobile numbers list is because funds that do not perform as well are cancelled because they are not interesting to invest in.
Tips influence survivorship bias reduction
To prevent survivorship bias from negatively affecting your decision-making as an entrepreneur as much as possible, here are some tips:

Look for the whole picture: Make sure you not only research success stories, but also pay attention to failures. Be aware that you will have to put more effort into finding information about failures.
Be critical of advice and consultants: Don't blindly listen to success stories and don't take for granted everything successful people say. Can they back up their advice with figures and theory or is it based on 1's own experience?
Evaluate external factors: Consider external factors, such as market conditions, timing and competition, when planning and making decisions. It is important to realize that success is not only the result of hard work and smart decisions, but also external factors that may be beyond your control.
Be aware that the probability of success of a good decision is never 100%. You can make the right decision and still be unsuccessful. For example: in poker, 2 aces is the best starting hand you can have. So it is wise to bet all your chips before a card is turned over. Yet even against the very worst hand (7-2 of different suits) you still have an 11.59% chance of not winning.
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